Short-term cancer survival worsened early in the pandemic, then improved by 2021
Latest official statistics from the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit of Public Health Wales reveal that the historic improvement in overall one-year cancer survival rates across the whole population of Wales stalled well before the pandemic.
The survival from cancer one year after diagnosis dropped significantly to 71.9 per cent in 2020, then rebounded to 75.2 per cent in 2021. This marks a recovery towards pre-pandemic levels.
Another key finding is that 63.1 per cent of patients aged 15-99, diagnosed from 2017-2021, survived their cancer five years from diagnosis. However, this rate has remained stable without improving since the 2014-18 diagnosis period. Before then, five-year cancer survival had been steadily improving for several decades.
There are survival differences between different types of cancer. For example, since the pandemic, one-year lung cancer survival did not recover as well as for other major cancers.
The statistics reveal stark inequalities in survival rates. For people diagnosed 2017-2021, 70.1 per cent from the least deprived areas survived cancer five years, compared to just 51.8 per cent in the most deprived areas. This gap hardly changed since 2002-2006.
Trends in survival inequalities in Wales can be quite different, depending on the type of cancer. For bowel (colorectal) cancer, five-year survival was 66.0 per cent for people living in the least deprived areas, compared to 49.1 per cent in the most deprived areas. This inequality gap is wider than for the previous diagnosis period. Ten-year lung cancer survival greatly improved in the least deprived areas (from 8.3 per cent to 14.7 per cent), but improved only slightly in the most deprived areas (from 6.8 per cent to 8.5 per cent), widening inequalities.
Professor Dyfed Wyn Huws, director of the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit, said: “The inequalities in Wales’ cancer survival – that are widening in some cases – are troubling.
“Also of concern is that despite many decades of steady improvement in overall cancer survival, several years before the pandemic it stopped significantly improving.
“However, after cancer survival in Wales dipped early in the pandemic, it is encouraging that cancer survival was already improving for many types of cancer by 2021.”
The Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit collects population-wide cancer data from many NHS and other sources. Trained staff and automated systems check and record the information according to recognised international standards using data protection rules.
This creates a reliable cancer registry that can be compared with other countries’ registry data collected in the same way. It is only because of this gold-standard registry data that the Welsh unit can take part in a range of vital international cancer survival studies.
Professor Dyfed Wyn Huws added: “Our many international research collaborations have already showed that pre-pandemic, Wales already had relatively poor cancer outcomes compared to many other high-income countries.
“Fortunately, we also researched what was behind this, and they are all being tackled: earlier diagnosis through better symptom awareness, and improved access to GP surgeries and diagnostic tests. Improved and prompt availability to existing and new effective treatments are also important. And it’s essential that people in deprived communities and vulnerable groups are not left behind.
“Finally, prevention through tackling the root social causes of ill-health, the risk factors they cause, and inequalities is key. Our studies have shown that up to 4 in 10 cases of cancer are potentially preventable. Public Health Wales’ cancer screening and vaccination programmes are constantly developing – they play an essential role in cancer prevention and early diagnosis.”
Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit Links
Cancer Survival web page (English)
Cancer Reporting Tool (English)